Ladder of Inference

**Pattern Name:**

Ladder of Inference

**Introduction:**

Disappointing consequences often follow behaviors (actions) based on faulty beliefs, faulty conclusions, faulty assumptions, faulty meanings, faulty selected data, and/or faulty observations. These errors compound.

**Illustration:**

POOL OF OBSERVABLE “DATA” OBSERVATIONS SELECTED DATA MEANINGS ASSUMPTIONS CONCLUSIONS BELIEFS ACTIONS INFERENCE Reflexive loop: our beliefs tend to affect what data we select next time Instead of jumping to “CONCLUSIONS,” analyze and test the assumptions, meanings, selected data & observations that created them Select from observations Add meanings to selected observations Make assump-tions based on our meanings Draw conclu-sions from our assumptons Adopt beliefs based on our conclusions Take actions based on our beliefs Model by Chris Argyris (1923–2013) LADDER OF INFERENCE

**CONTEXT:**

Coherent decision making is hard. Understanding the foundations of decisions promotes learning from mistakes.

The ladder of inference is metaphorical model, created by Chris Argyris (1923–2013), of how people take action based on an often unconscious process of inference from the flux or pool of observable "data". Argyris's original ladder had fewer rungs with different names. The names of the rungs of the ladder used here are the same as those found in, e.g.: Ross, Rick (1994). "The ladder of inference". In: Senge, Peter M.; Kleiner, Art; Roberts, Charlotte; Ross, Rick; & Smith, Bryan (eds.), The fifth discipline fieldbook: strategies and tools for building a learning organization (pp. 242–246). New York: Currency/Doubleday. ISBN 0385472560

By User:Biogeographist - Page 6 of File:CDP October 2018 quarterly check - Slide deck.pdf, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=79956121

**PROBLEM:** Beliefs are mental models--implicit. Not open to view.

**Forces:**

**THEREFORE (SOLUTION):** Make implicit models explicit and test them with others and with designed experiments.

**Actions:**

**Consequences:**

**Known Uses:**

**RELATED PATTERNS:**

Examples Non-examples Probable Error Sources

# Notes:

Ladder of Inference: How we think... Actions: Take action based on our beliefs. Beliefs: Develop beliefs based on our conclusions. Conclusions: Draw conclusions based on our assumptions. Assumptions: Make assumptions based on that meaning. Meanings: Lend mening to a selection of data we observed. Selected Data Observations Pool of Data